Transcript

#322: Adam Robinson — Outflanking and Outsmarting the Competition

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Slash Tim. Check it out. Hello, my darling little Magwai. This is Tim Ferris, and welcome to another episode of the Tim Ferris Show, where it is my job to interview world class performers from every discipline imaginable to tease out the habits, the patterns, the belief systems, favorite books, whatever it might be that you can apply to your own life. And this episode is going to be a slightly different format. You will get what I just mentioned, and it will be with one of the biggest surprise hit guests that I've ever had on the podcast, and you wanted me to have him back on to pick up where we left off.

And to ask the rapid fire questions that are your favorites, which we didn't get to. And uh that is the purpose of this recording. And he does deliver. His name is Adam. So without further ado Let's get into it. Our guest today is Adam Robinson. You can find him on Twitter at I am Adam Robinson or at Robinson Global Strategies dot com. Adam has made a lifelong study of outflanking and outsmarting the competition. He is a rated chess master.

And has been awarded a life master title by the United States Chess Federation. As a teenager, he was personally mentored by Bobby Fisher in the eighteen months leading up to his winning the world championship. And Adam and I talked a lot about this in our first conversation on the Tim Ferriss show, which you guys can check out. But back to the bio. Then in Adams' first career, he developed a revolutionary approach to taking standardized tests as one of the two original co-founders of the Princeton Review. His paradigm breaking or category killing, as they say in publishing, test prep book Cracking the System, the SAT, is the only test prep book to have ever become a New York Times bestseller. After selling his interest in the Princeton Review, Adam turned his attention in the early nineties to the then emerging field of artificial intelligence, developing a program that could analyze text and provide human like commentary. He was later invited to join a well known Quant fund to develop statistical trading models and since

He has established himself as an independent global macro advisor to the chief investment officers of a select group of the world's most successful hedge funds and ultra high net worth family offices. If you could have a gigantic billboard anywhere with anything on it, what would it say and why? Well first Tim, thanks for having me back. It's always a a great joy and a privilege and a pleasure. I leave aside the danger of having a text heavy bowboard that would distract passing drivers.

Instead, I'll focus on four core quotes I live my life by. Two by others. And two by me. First The two quotes by others.

The first is Roger Kipling. If you did not get what you want. It's a sign either that you did not seriously want it. Or you try to bargain over the price.

And the second quote is Amelia Earhart's The most difficult thing is the decision to act. The rest is merely tenacity. Kipling and Earhart almost capture the secret to achievement. But we need to qualify them because they can lead to

Obstinate persistence Either to goals or methods. That aren't working. And because they ignore or dismiss the emotional component of achieving goals. So I'll add two quotes of my own.

And the first I think this is my Favorite personal quote. If you're not getting the results you want, change what you're doing. You'd think that would be obvious. You'd think people of course would change. They would pivot, but they don't. They do more of the same.

they double down on what they've already done. They try harder. Okay, so how do you change what you're doing? A good starting point is to take a step in the opposite direction. So if you've been spending a lot of money, spend less. If you've been making a lot of phone calls, make fewer phone calls or none at all.

So these new steps might not work either, in which case change and change again. Keep pivoting until you find something that works and then do more of that. My second quote is if you experience any negative emotion. Doubt. fear, frustration, anger. It's almost always a sign.

to redirect your attention. either to the task at hand Or to others. Michael Jordan once said that he's never thought about missing a shot. And the reason he's never thought about missing a shot is that it's

Attention is totally focused on making the shot. So it would be wrong to say that Michael Jordan was self-confident about making the shot, because the attention there would be focused not on making the shot. But on himself. So self confidence in this sense is almost as bad as self doubt. your attention is focused on the wrong thing. It's focused on yourself as opposed to

The shot you're trying to make. or the task at hand, whatever it might be, or the other. The other person. So I have dozen actually hundreds of other quotes that resonate with how I live my life, but for a billboard I would confine myself to those four. What are bad recommendations that you hear in your profession or area of expertise?

My field is that of global finance. And virtually all investors have been told When they were younger. who implicitly believe or have been tacitly encouraged to do so. by the cookie cutter curriculums of business schools they all attend.

Та the more they understand the world. The better their investment results. It makes sense, doesn't it? The more information we acquire and evaluate, the air quotes better informed we become.

And the better our decisions. Accumulating information, becoming better informed, is certainly an advantage in numerous, if not most fields. But not in the counterintuitive world of investing, where accumulating information can actually hurt your investment results. Со найтін севтіфо пол словик а ворд клас психологіст. and a peer of Nobel laureate Daniel Conneman.

decided to evaluate the effect of information on decision making. This study should be taught at every business school in the country. Slovak gathered eight professional horse handicappers and announced to them I want to see how well you predict the winners of horse races. Now these handicappers were all seasoned professionals who made their living

solely on their gambling skills. Slovak told them the test would consist of predicting forty horse races in four consecutive rounds. In the first round, each gambler would be given the five pieces of information he wanted on each horse. Which would vary from handicapper to handicapper. One handicapper, for example, might want the years of experience the jockey has had as one of his top five variables.

While another might not care at all about that, but want the fastest speed for any given horse had achieved in the past year. Or the weight of the jockey, or whatever. Finally, in addition to asking the handicappers to predict the winner of each race, He asked each one to also state how confident he was in his prediction.

Now. As it turns out. There were an average of ten horses in each race. So we would expect by blind chance. Random guessing.

That each handicapper would be right ten percent of the time. And that their confidence with a blind guess To be ten percent. So in round one, let's see how they did. With just five pieces of information

The handicappers were seventeen percent accurate, which is pretty good, actually. Seventy percent better than the ten percent chance they started with given zero pieces of information. And interestingly, their confidence was nineteen percent. Almost exactly as confident as they should have been. They were seventeen percent accurate and nineteen percent confident in their predictions. Excellent calibration.

In round two. They were then given ten pieces of information. In round three, twenty. And in the fourth and final round Each handicapper was given forty pieces of information.

That's a whole lot more statistics than the five pieces of information that each started with. Surprisingly Their accuracy had flatlined at seventeen percent. They were no more accurate with the additional thirty five pieces of information they had. Unfortunately, their confidence in their predictions is

had nearly doubled. to thirty one percent. So the additional information made them no more accurate, but a whole lot more confident. which would have led them to increase the size of their bets and lose money as a result. Beyond a certain amount

of information a certain minimal amount Additional information only feeds Confirmation bias. Leaving aside. The considerable cost and delay occasioned in acquiring that information.

The additional information we gain that conflicts with our original assessment or conclusion, we conveniently ignore or dismiss. While the information that confirms our original decision makes us increasingly certain That our conclusion was correct. So to return to investing, the second problem with trying to understand the world Is that it is simply

Far too complex to grasp. And the more dogged our attempts to understand the world, the more earnestly we want to explain. That's air quotes explain events and trends in it. The more We become attached to our resulting beliefs.

Which are almost always more or less mistaken. blinding us to the financial trends that are actually unfolding right in front of our eyes. Worse, we think we understand the world, giving us a false sense of confidence when in fact we are almost Always more or less mistaken. You hear all the time from even the most s seasoned investors and financial experts that this trend or that doesn't make sense.

It doesn't make sense that the dollar keeps going lower, or it makes no sense that Stocks keep going. Higher. But what's really going on when investors say that something makes no sense Is that they have a dozen

or whatever reasons why the trend should be moving in the opposite direction. Yet it keeps moving in the current direction. So they believe the trend air quotes makes no sense. But what makes no sense is their model of the world. That's what doesn't make sense. The world always makes sense.

We just don't understand it. In fact Because financial trends involve human behavior and human beliefs on a global scale. The most powerful trends won't make sense until it becomes too late to profit from them. By the time investors formulate an understanding

Again a false understanding that gives them the feeling of confidence to invest, the investment opportunity has likely already passed. So when I hear sophisticated investors or financial commentators say, for example, that it makes no sense how energy stocks keep going lower, I know that energy stocks have a lot lower to go because all those investors are on the wrong side of the trade. in denial, probably doubling down. on their original decision to buy energy stocks.

Eventually, they'll be forced to throw in the towel and have to sell those energy stocks, driving prices still lower. What is one of the best or most worthwhile investments you've ever made? I've made many investments in my life of money, of time, of energy. Of passion and emotion. And one of the best payoffs for the amount invested was learning to meditate.

I've always been driven. excited by the world. So my mind is continually racing at a thousand miles per hour. Pursuing this question or that, creating this system or that. Non stop. twenty four hours a day.

three hundred and sixty five days a year, three hundred and sixty six on leap years. Now all that nonstop mental and psychic stimulation gets exhausting, of course. And if you want to perform optimally at anything. You need to find a way to recover from the stresses of that activity. So I

knew that though I should find a way to turn off my mind and Air quotes Just relax. Just enjoy. Just be. For years.

I had failed to find a way. I tried everything, yoga. exercise, I even tried hypnosis. I researched once the best hypnist in New York City.

somehow turn off my hyperactive mind. But after four attempted and hugely expensive sessions with this guy, the hypnotist gave up saying, Your mind is too active to submit to the hypnosis. Well th thanks a lot, Doc, I told him not concealing my annoyance. That's exactly why I had come to him. Then, about two years ago, my bestie Josh Waitskin, recognizing that I couldn't unwind or disengage from my relentless analyzing of the world. Especially the financial world. recommended that I take up meditation.

Sorry, I said, it doesn't work for me. I can't sit still long enough for any benefits of meditating to kick in. So we asked. Have you ever tried heart rate variability training? HR V training. I said, No, what's that?

He said that you just Focused on your breathing using bio feedback to measure the smoothness And the amplitude hence the word variability of your heart rate. The heart.

Not surprisingly, registers all our real time emotions and stresses. So the normal heartbeat is highly erratic. staying within a tight band around an average. The goal with the vi biofeedback training is to gain control over your own heart rate by focusing on your breathing. Making your jagged heart rate smooth out like a sine curve.

and to widen its amplitude. That sounded interesting, but it wasn't until I reframed meditation that I submitted to trying it. The problem with meditation, I thought, was that it wasn't practical. And worse. The time I spent meditating was time I could have spent analysing the world.

But I eventually reframe meditation as a way to relinquish control of my conscious mind. So that my more powerful unconscious mind could take over. and my analysis of the world would improve. Motivated by that reframing, I enthusiastically adopted

biofeedback HR V training and in a few weeks learn to quiet my mind After just a single deep Diaphragm belly breath. Gain the ability to achieve a Zen like calm on demand. Now

Whenever I need to detach from the world or from the stresses of daily life and to allow my mind a rest. I simply get centered and inhale from my diaphragm. And I do so numerous times a day. A minute here, a minute there, and at least once a day I waste that's air quotes, I waste a larger fifteen to twenty minute block of time. Meditating in this way.

But it's not wasted time, of course, since the increased creativity and productivity. from these many restorative sessions. It's far more valuable than the time I spend being unproductive.

Again, air quotes. While meditating. Meditation is one of the most practical, powerful productivity enhancing tools ever created. And learning to meditate is one of the best investments I've ever made. What purchase of one hundred dollars or less has most positively impacted your life in the last six months or in recent memory?

Well, this purchase is not less than a hundred dollars, but at a hundred and fifty nine it is Too close to pass up. The heart math inner balance. Biofeedback monitor. It detects your heart's minutest rhythms and send a graph to your smartphone.

facilitating HR V training. And while you're at it, get the book Heart Math Solution. In the last five years What new belief, behavior, or habit has most improved your life? The understanding

Which has become a habit. But it has most improved my life in the last five years, dramatically so. is recognizing the importance of others. In not only changing the world, but in enjoying it. By nature I'm an introvert.

So much so that some friends revealed after high school They There were students classmates of mine who had never seen me speak, not once in all of high school. By the time I graduated From

Oxford. After doing my undergraduate work at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. I'd begun to emerge from my interior world to a great extent. But I was still ninety five to five on the introvert extrovert scale. I very much enjoyed the company of other people, but only for brief periods, fifteen, thirty minutes, beyond which I'd reach overload, and I need to seclude myself to recharge.

After college, in my career My success in the world was the product of my insights and imagination and thinking. So I inhabited the world of ideas far more than I did the world of people. The more and better ideas I came up with, the more success I achieved. So it came as a surprise relatively late in life. In fact

Only in the past year. That if you want to change the world. You have to enroll others in your plans and vision. Not only that, but I discovered the immense pleasures and satisfactions that can be derived from focusing on others. And putting them first.

And the surprising discovery that the more I gave to others, which I'd always done. The more the universe gave me back in return. Whereas in the past when I went outside and encountered others, I would invariably be Lost in thought. Now I am solely focused, not inwardly on my ideas, but outwardly on connecting with others. I mentioned this discovery publicly for the first time in a live group podcast I did with you, Tim, back in December twenty sixteen.

And was inspired shortly thereafter to write a book. An invitation to the great game. A parable of love, magic, and everyday miracles. in which I articulate my three guiding rules of life. First.

Whenever possible, connect with others. Second. With enthusiasm. Strive always to create fun and delight for others. And third.

Lean into each moment and every encounter expecting magic. or miracles. This discovery so profoundly altered my life path. Revealing for the first time my true mission on this planet. Then I now divide my life into two periods.

pre discovery of others and post discovery. Now I so eagerly look forward to leaving my home each day, wondering what magic I'll create. Encountering others that I can scarcely contain myself. My days now have a natural rhythm between introversion and extroversion. That is akin to breathing.

When I'm alone. I inhale my ideas. and then I exhale with others. The number of remarkable people and serendipities and successes that have come into my life since I've adopted this awareness of others. which quickly developed into a reflexive habit of directing my attention solely on them when I am not alone.

Has been nothing short of astonishing. So Tim, I have to thank you for Inspiring that book with that question. At the ninety second street Why? What have you learned this past year? And uh the book

An invitation of the great game will be coming out soon. in January. What advice would you give to a smart driven college student about to enter the real world? Yikes. I could write a book in response to this question. So instead

I just toss out a hodgepodge of observations. Truths. Maxims, caveats. and exhortations that I wish I'd known, or at least fully appreciated. when I just entered the real world myself.

Congratulations. You recently left, or you'll soon be leaving, an ecosystem you've known your Whole life. for an entirely new one. To switch analogies.

You're leaving a game you've played. Since at least first grade. With the rule book you've consciously If not unconsciously assimilated. And more or less mastered for an entirely new game with no formal rule book handed out.

You'll have to write your own rule book. You'd think the point of education would be to prepare you for the real world. But the real world is more unlike school than like it. Indeed, you'll find that many of the traits and habits and behaviors

that served you well in school will either not work In the real world. Will work against you. So you'll have to adopt an experimental attitude towards everything. continually testing what works for you and what doesn't.

Graduating from college or leaving behind your formal schooling whatever form it took. To enter the real world. is a major step Since it marks the first time in your life when you'll be making most of the decisions that affect that life. rather than being told what to do or being assigned what to do.

You won't receive a clear course syllabus every few months detailing the assignments and exactly what is expected of you. And the standards by which a single person Your professor. We'll evaluate your work. And award you a single letter grade.

So you'll have to find your own incentives. Another enormous difference is that for the first time you won't be needing to navigate simply a cohort of peers More or less exactly your age and from very similar backgrounds, if not aspirations. no longer. Now you'll be interacting with a broad spectrum of humanity in all its delightful but sometimes challenging diversity.

So you'll need to acquire a whole new set of people skills and ways to relate to others and cultivate what's known as Emotional intelligence. So the rhythms of your life. From the daily to the weekly to the monthly. to the yearly.

Will be ones you establish on your own. rather than the structures and timetables dictated by the academic calendar year. you'll find this lack of structure more or less disorienting. And the more you develop routines daily and weekly at least.

the better. Another recommendation instead of asking yourself Air quotes. What do you want to do? Ask rather than the other. Who do you want to be?

Whatever you're doing for work, whatever. Throw yourself into it wholeheartedly, even if you realize it's a transitional gig while you search for something better. Don't ever worry that Air quotes You'll be doing this for the rest of your life. You won't. But if that's your attitude, you're missing out on the next point.

If there were a single quality underappreciated by recent graduates that will most ensure your career success. It's not the obvious ones like intelligence and good habits and discipline. and the capacity for hard work. But rather this.

entuzijazm. in all matters be enthusiastic. and others will want to be around you. including work with you. And you'll flourish.

Unrelenting enthusiasm. I can't recommend that strongly enough. Unrelenting. As long as you're following all the other rules here, have patience. Life moves at once much slower than you expect. And much faster.

You can be doing everything right. Paying your dues. And for months or years it seems like you're not making any progress, and then all of a sudden, boom. Your life explodes forward at light speed. Benjamin Disraeli said that the secret to success was being ready for your opportunity when it presents itself.

Until then. Pay your dues. Your success in the world rests largely on your ability to create compelling positive visions of the future that others feel irresistibly drawn to be a part of.

that goes not only for your professional life But also for your personal and even romantic life. As early as you can. Try to connect to your personal mission. Who are you here on this planet to be?

Mark Twain said the two most important days in your life are the day you're born And the day you discover why. I promise you. The sooner you become aware of a mission larger than yourself that you are devoted to, The exponentially more rapidly your personal and professional goals will be achieved.

Find out what you love to do and do best. and cultivate that talent or talents. Then be relentless in finding jobs or situations in which those strengths and passions are are most in demand. Know what your hammer is, in a sense, and then look for nails to hit.

The most important gifts And goals in life. Including love, success, and happiness. А невечід. I want to underscore that, never achieved by pursuing them directly.

Those people focused on finding love, for example, have their attention and priorities diverted from being the kind of loving, lovable person that would actually attract the love they're looking for. And if your focus is on becoming successful or wealthy or whatever Your attention isn't focused on the activities and tasks And others.

that will actually lead to that success and wealth. Love, success, and happiness catch you best by surprise. While your attention is focused on doing in the world and being your best self in that world. When you feel overwhelmed or unfocused, what do you do? When I'm feeling unfocused, the first question I ask myself is

Ама ресing май безсел. And if the answer is no, I ask myself how I can reset. Each day presents us with eighty six thousand four hundred seconds. Which means each day presents us with virtually countless opportunities to reset. Рекавар баланс.

And continue rehearsing our best selves. If I realize my focus is off. And certainly when I'm experiencing any negative emotions I ask myself Where should my attention be right now?

Almost always the answer is my mission. Which is like a beacon that always backens. But sometimes I take on too many commitments because I sometimes have trouble saying no to others. Eager to work with me. I can become a bit over committed and overwhelmed.

So when that happens, rather than attempting to do everything badly, I ask myself What activity or commitment can I cut out right now That will free up the most time. Reminds me in a funny way of this news story I read ages ago about a small European town, I won't say what country lest I offend it unnecessarily.

In which the postal workers had trouble keeping up with their deliveries. So on Monday they do their best to deliver the mail. But they'd have some pieces left over. which they'd add to Tuesday's delivery pile. Tuesday they'd fall further behind, of course, and Wednesday and Thursday.

Further still. By Friday. They'd have an enormous pile of undelivered mail. Which they burn. So they could start fresh on Monday.

The process repe would repeat the next week. A small bonfire every Friday purging their delivery vans of that week's undelivered mail. Now that was a highly dubious way of resetting each week, which I don't recommend. But the idea of having a fresh restart whenever overwhelmed is excellent. So let's say by noon on any given day I'm falling behind.

And it's clear I'm in danger of becoming overwhelmed in short order. Rather than attempting to Keep. all of my afternoon appointments, which I'd reach later and later in the as the day progressed. I scan my calendar.

And I ask myself, which is the earliest appointment? as it were I can burn by postponing it to another day. I'd rather reschedule one appointment and make the other three on time than be late and frazzled for all four appointments that afternoon. Speaking of which Each week I leave one day completely open.

And schedule a pretend trip out of the city. So that I'm not tempted to fill it in any way. Not even Meeting with friends. Or having other fun diversions. Then

If an emergency arises or I fall behind and become overwhelmed. I know I have a Free day air quotes, a free day to use any way I'd like. So when I get overwhelmed trying to juggle too many balls simultaneously. I ask myself which one or two balls can I set down for the moment.

So that I can get caught up on all the others. In the last five years, what have you become better at saying no to? This is such an important lesson. being able to say no. It's especially hard for me.

Because of my inherent optimism and my unflagging enthusiasm. And because I always lean into each moment and every encounter expecting magic or miracles. And because life has rewarded me increasingly with tantalising offers. So I not infrequently say yes too often to my regret.

because I wind up overloading my cognitive or physical or energy bandwidths Or simply run out of time. So I found a powerfully useful editing principle, as it were, in deciding whether to say yes or no to any particular request or proposal or invitation. or opportunity is answering the following question. Will saying yes to this option advance any important goals in my life.

Especially my calling or my mission. The key point there is to have A personal mission in the world. Which will not only give you a stronger sense of direction and structure. Energy.

And motivation personally as well as professionally. But it's also a filter. with which you can decide whether to say yes to any particular short term or long term options or opportunities that arise for you on any given day. Keep in mind that the time spent on pursuits not related to your mission is time that could have been spent on it. Not that all your time, of course, should be devoted to your mission.

You'll have other goals in your life, personal and professional, and sometimes you'll just want to goof off or otherwise enjoy yourself. But the sooner you connect to your mission The sooner all aspects of your life will fall into place. What is an unusual habit or an absurd thing that you love? In the old television show Candid Camera

Reprised by Ashton Kutcher. Punk. In more recent times. Unsuspecting people were videotaped coping in real time with an insane prearranged situation. Usually to great ensuing hilarity.

I get endless delight. Covertly. Ambushing. Unsuspecting strangers with random acts of kindness. So for example, after ordering my iced latte,

I'll give a Starbucks barista a twenty dollar bill. And tell him or her to cop the person right after the person behind me for whatever he or she wants. And to give that person the change as well. I don't do the person immediately behind me who might suspect that I was the mystery benefactor. Then I sit my latte from afar and watch the confusion give way to smiles.

when the random beneficiary realizes the unexpected bounty. Sometimes the person leaves all the changes a tip. Sometimes he or she will pay it forward and gift the next person behind a free coffee. But the beneficiary always leaves smiling broadly. And I know that I've unleashed a positive ripple effect

in that person's community and to anyone he or she encounters that day. I love spreading the magic. Hey guys, this is Tim again, just a few more things before you take off. Number one, this is Five Bullet Friday. Do you want to get a short email from me? Would you enjoy getting a short email from me every Friday that provides a little morsel of fun before the weekend? And Five Bullet Friday is a very short email where I share the coolest things I've found or that I've been pondering over the week. That could include favorite new albums that I've discovered. It could include gizmos and gadgets and all sorts of weird shit that I've somehow dug up.

in the uh the world of the esoteric as I do, it could include favorite articles that I've read and that I've shared with my close friends, for instance. And it's very short. It's just a little tiny bite. of goodness before you head off for the weekend. So if you want to receive that, check it out, just go to fourhourworkweek.com, that's fourhourworkweek.com all spelled out, and just drop in your email and you will get the very next one. And if you sign up, I hope you enjoy it. This episode is brought to you by 99 Designs. Whether you need a logo, custom website, app, book cover, or anything else, 99 Designs was created to make great design accessible to everyone, that's you, and to make the process as easy. as possible. I've used 99 designs for years now. I've used them for book covers, some mock ups for the four hour body, which went on to become a number one European's bestseller, illustrations of all different types for the multi-volume The Tau of Seneca, which you can check out, and other graphic design projects. for a long time now, and I've been very impressed by the quality of their designers and illustrators. And you don't have to take my word for it, you should check out some of my projects.

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